| Northwest Division Title Comes Down To The Wire Authored by Jason Schwisow - April 12, 2005 - 9:35 pm
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Unable to turn that “X” in the standings into a “Y”, the Sonics have faded at the worst possible time, the bottles of champagne remain on ice, and the footsteps of the oncoming Denver Nuggets rings loudly in their ears.
If you’re a Sonic fan, player, broadcaster, owner, or anyone who lives within the greater Seattle metropolitan area, things are simply getting a little too close for comfort.
Heading into Wednesday’s matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, the Sonics have dropped five games in a row, by far their longest losing streak in a season that’s seen the Sonics avoid too many losing streaks.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets have been on a full-on charge better than anything Alfred Lord Tennyson ever wrote about. Clothed in their UCLA Bruin-esque jerseys, the Nuggets haven’t lost in the month of March, and through February they’ve only lost 6 games compared to 27 wins. That’s a ridiculous 75% winning percentage, easily good enough to take the Nuggets from being a disappointment to a possible playoff team to team fighting for a middle seed in the playoffs and possibly the division crown.
Why have things gotten to this point? People like to talk about the Nuggets and what they’ve done to turn things around, but the Sonics deserve an equal share of the attention for the misfortune that’s befallen the franchise in the late stages of the season.
First, there’s the laundry list of injuries that have thwarted Coach Nate McMillan’s ability to run the perimeter based offense that has gotten the Sonics to this point.
Sixth man extraordinaire Vladimir Radmanovic was the first domino to fall, placed in the injured list on March 18 with a stress fracture in his right leg that was initially expected to keep him out 4-6 weeks.
All-Star SF Rashard Lewis, battling knee tendonitis all season long, was finally knocked out of the lineup in late March by a bone contusion in his foot that required an MRI and generated serious concerns about whether he also might have a stress fracture. Without Lewis, the Sonics have gone 2-6.
PF/C Danny Fortson has suffered through ankle and shoulder injuries. C Jerome James also had an ankle injury that cost him a couple games. Backup PG Antonio Daniels, who’s suffered through a partially torn ligament in his knee that won’t get any worse or better until addressed in the offseason, has finally been knocked out of action by another knee problem that’s causing cartilage to scrape in his knee.
When you take out two of the Sonics main guns from the perimeter, their best low post threat, three of their top four scorers, their best offensive rebounder and possibly most effective pick setter, it’s not surprising that the pick and roll and the perimeter gunning just isn’t working like it once did.
With so many players on the shelf, the Sonics have had to turn to their bench for help. While the Sonics bench has been one of the team’s strengths, with so many injuries the options available on the bench are rather slim.
Previously unused SF Damien Wilkins, he of enviable lineage, has come on fairly strong for the Sonics in a time of need. As a makeshift starter, Wilkins has averaged 12 PPG, 3.7 RPG, and 2 APG while showing flashes of heady play on defense. Against the Portland Trailblazers last month, Wilkins had a coming out party where he scored 21 points, had 2 steals and block that don’t adequately tell the story of how he won the game with his late defense.
However, despite the flashes of brilliance, it’s quite understandable that the undrafted Wilkins often plays like a rookie. Those flashes of good defense are sometimes too far apart, and for a guy who’s not a great three point shooter, Wilkins shoots far too much from the outside.
Since he started getting meaningful minutes in March, Wilkins has hoisted 38 3PT shots in 13 games played, for an average of 2.9 3PTA per game. Of those taken, 12 have been made, giving Wilkins a 31.5 3PT%.
While that average is better than his season average of 24% from the perimeter, many of the shots Wilkins is taking are simply bad shots, not taken in rhythm or when someone’s in position to grab the offensive board and give the Sonics another opportunity on the offensive end.
The same problem exists with SG Ronald “Flip” Murray, who also shoots 24% from outside on the season and has been firing away lately when others have been out of the lineup. Murray has taken 40 3PT shots of his own during the last 14 games, giving him around 2.8 3PTA per game compared to Wilkins 2.9.
Of those shots taken, Murray has made a whopping 9 total, giving him an anemic 22.5 3PT% which is far worse than what Wilkins is shooting over the same span.
Whether or not that low percentage shot selection is the players’ fault or the coach’s fault is hard to determine by a fan without access to locker room speeches and timeout huddles. While Murray and Wilkins can’t shoot very well from outside, all season long the Sonics offense has relied heavily on the perimeter.
Coach McMillan may be willing to tolerate the poor shooting from poor shooters in order to keep from implementing a new offense this late in the season, which could create unneeded confusion and upset any rhythm heading into the postseason.
Backup centers Vitaly Potapenko and Robert Swift have also been pressed into action. While Potapenko has been able to step up and hit the midrange jumper here and there, Robert Swift is clearly not ready for primetime just yet. Neither of the two has really made a difference in limited minutes.
Second, there’s the issue of team defense. Out of six games played in March, the Sonics have given up over 100 points in four of those games. Two of those hundred point games even saw the Sonics giving up over 120 points, a far cry from the team that’s allowed an averaged of 96.8 PPG on the season.
With all the scorers missing, you’d think the Sonics would be putting up low offensive totals, but that’s really not been the case. Instead, the Sonics have mostly continued to put up big scores as they’re outscored by the opposition. For a team whose best defense is its offense, two problem areas have led to the opponents’ offensive outburst.
All season long, the Sonics have been a very good offensive rebounding team. However, during their recent slide, they’ve been largely missing PF/C Danny Fortson, one of the team’s best offensive rebounders. According to 82games.com, when Fortson’s been on the court this season, the Sonics have grabbed 38.5% of available offensive rebounds, compared to 33.2% when he’s off the court, for a +5.4 differential in Fortson’s favor.
All season long, the Sonics have been a very efficient scoring team, but with Lewis and Radmanovic being replaced by Wilkins and Murray, the team hasn’t been as efficient at scoring as it had been. Also not surprising that as the Sonics have swapped out the taller Lewis and Radmanovic for the shorter Wilkins and Murray, the Sonics aren’t getting the looks that height affords and are seeing more shots blocked.
With more shots missed and more offensive rebounds missed, opposing defenses have been able to take advantage, and use their transition games to run the Sonics out of the gym or set up their halfcourt offense early.
Against the Rockets on Monday, the Sonics seemed to have their defensive woes turned around as they clamped down in the first half, limiting the Rockets to 37 points in the first half. But when the second half came around, the Rockets dropped 34 points in the third quarter alone. Where the first half saw the Sonics containing Tracy McGrady, he came alive in the second half and scored 38 points in the game. Not surprisingly, the Sonics lost and the division remained up for grabs.
And now, here the Sonics sit, ready to win yet poised to lose. To lose the division to the Nuggets, regardless of how great this season has been to this point, would be extra painful on two levels.
Think back to 1994, when the Sonics were the best team in the Western Conference, posting a then franchise record 63 wins on a season of seeming destiny. As the first seed in the playoffs, and lead by the dynamic duo of Gary Payton and Shawn Kemp, the Sonics seemed to have a first round victory against the Denver Nuggets in the bag after taking the first two games in the series.
And then, in the words of VH1’s Behind the Music series, it all came crashing down. When the Series moved to Denver, the pernicious Nuggets pounced, beating the Sonics 110-93 in Game 3 and squeaking out a 94-85 overtime win in Game 4. With the series tied and going back to Seattle, the Sonics still seemed to have the advantage as they’d won 39 of 43 outings that season in Key Arena. Not to mention, at that point, no eighth seed had ever upset a number one seed under the NBA’s current playoff format.
Yet, in the last game, the Sonics came out a bit tight, and not even their patented full-court press defense could save them from the abattoir. Despite a layup by Kendall Gill that forced overtime, Denver still edged Seattle 98-94 in the extra period.
When the final buzzer sounded, a camera viciously zeroed in on C Dikembe Mutombo as he wrapped both palms around the final rebound and fell to the floor, his mouth agape in a grin of sheer ecstasy as the camera slowly circled above him and his teammates piled upon him in celebration.
It was, simply, a knife to the heart of Sonics fans. To have the same franchise execute a similarly unlikely comeback in what seemed a season of Sonics destiny would reopen old wounds and be all the more painful given the culprit.
One man who remembers that frightening visage better than anyone is former Sonics coach George Karl, who coached the Sonics during that loss and, in a karmaic twist possibly organized by Shiva himself, now patrols the Nuggets sidelines after a mid season coaching switcheroo. While sometimes clad in a powder blue sweater that makes him a deadringer for a kinder, gentler Rick Majerus, rest assured it’s most certainly the same Coach Karl that both excited and frustrated the Sonics faithful a decade ago.
The same Coach Karl would lead the Sonics to prominence in the mid 1990s, and the same Coach Karl who often floundered in the playoffs and never managed to lead the team to a championship win.
The same Coach Karl who was the last coach to lead the Sonics to a division title in 1998, before his contract expired and he was replaced by Paul Westphal, the coaching equivalent of vanilla yogurt.
The same Coach Karl who, after leaving the Sonics under less than friendly terms, moved on to Milwaukee and coached current Sonics SG Ray Allen, which lead to an acrimonious relationship between the two. Coincidence?
So, what hope is there for the Sonics? Luckily, there is some good in this time of worriment. Not enough to allay the fears of the Sonics faithful, but enough to give them something to look towards and a reason to cheer.
After being held out of games due to injuries that required rest, Rashard Lewis has been able to get on the court early this week and work with trainers, and is expected to return to the court in the Sonics/ next game against the Dallas Mavericks after participating in light practice today.
If he can return before the season is over, help take the pressure off of Ray Allen, and allow the Sonics to run their offense as they’re used to it being run, then the Sonics have a decent chance of getting that lone win. For a team that’s recently played without three of its top four scorers, to get Lewis back would be a huge boost.
Sonics PF/C Danny Fortson and Sonics backup PG Antonio Daniels both practiced at the beginning of the week, and both are expected to return in time to play the Mavs as well.
There’s also the kindness of the schedule makers. While the schedule to close out the season has been a bit rough, someone was kind enough to schedule the Sonics final home game against the New Orleans Hornets. Losers of four out of their last five games, and owners of a conference worst 18-58 record, the Hornets roll into Seattle the day after playing the Suns in Phoenix.
After the Hornets, the Sonics have to go on the road against the Timberwolves, Mavs, and Rockets, meaning if they don’t get it done at the Key against the Hornets, they just might not get it done. But still, that Hornets game present a great opportunity.
There’s also the tough schedule facing the Sonics hard charging division foes. While the Nuggets are easily the hottest team in the league, they still have to get through the Houston Rockets and the Phoenix Suns on the road, which is a tough task regardless of how hard you are.
Regardless of who wins the division, this current scrum may be just a preview of greater things to come as both teams are a lock for the playoffs and could end up facing each other in the first round.
If the playoffs started today, the Sonics would host the Rockets in the first round, but Denver’s tied with Houston in the loss column and is certainly capable of pulling ahead. If Denver manages to complete the comeback, then it’s possible the Nuggets could host the Sonics in the first round.
If that’s the case, bring the Nuggets on. Surely McMillan would love nothing more than to pay back a long due favor to the Nuggets, especially at the expense of his coach/mentor George Karl.
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